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Laddas ned direkt. Skickas inom vardagar. China's diplomatic strategy has changed dramatically since the mids, creating both challenges and opportunities for other world powers. Through a combination of pragmatic security policies, growing economic clout, and increasingly deft diplomacy, China has established productive and increasingly solid relationships throughout Asia and around the globe. Yet U. Rising Star provides a coherent framework for understanding China's new security diplomacy and guiding America's China policy.
The expert further elaborates that comprehensive strategic partnerships in particular are part of the practical policy. As regards the different types of partnerships, material and personnel costs generally rise from partnerships to strategic partnerships to comprehensive strategic partnerships, thus implying different levels of commitment. The variable takes a value of 1 in the year in which a country entered into its first partnership with China. It uses all three categories of partnership type because, as argued above, partnerships also have to be considered as an initial step in a process leading to closer bilateral relations.
To shed light on alignment decisions made under the partnerships framework, the empirical section tests several quantitative measurements related to the interest- and ideology-driven explanations of partner choice.
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To account for such interests, the analysis considers four variables. It measures the size of national economies relative to their distance from China, and is calculated by dividing national GDP figures by the geographical distance in miles.
The variable capabilities draws on military expenditure data from the Correlates of War project. The role of ideological affinities is tested using a second set of variables. As argued above, the analysis differentiates between two aspects of a broader notion of ideology: domestic regimes and beliefs on the one hand, and the normative values upheld in the international society on the other.
To capture the institutional effects of domestic regimes on the propensity for alignment, the analysis includes a measurement of national level of democracy based on the Polity IV Project polity 2-variable and Freedom House scores. It is coded based on the information on national legal origins as presented in La Porta et al and provided by the Quality of Government Standard Dataset To operationalize the notion of normative positions towards the basic foundations of the international order, the study draws on national voting behaviour within the United Nations General Assembly UNGA.
The goal of the regression analysis is to estimate the effects of the interest- and ideology-related predictors on partnership formation with China. The regression analysis uses a time-series cross-sectional dataset at the monadic level of analysis that covers all sovereign countries except China for the period — Subsequent country-years are deleted from the models, since the analysis focuses on the likelihood of onsets. To address time dependence, the models include a simple polynomial of no event-years. To account for heteroscedasticity and arbitrary correlation of observations within groups, all the models use robust standard errors clustered at the country level.
In addition, a random-effects model that includes year effects is estimated to include country-level variation and model heterogeneity across countries. Table 2 reports the main findings of the regression estimations.https://statanlilindgrid.gq
Throughout the different model specifications, the coefficients are all positive and yield satisfactory levels of statistical significance. Table 2 Logistic Regressions on Partner Choice. Note: The table displays the results of the standard logistic regression models 1—3 , rare-event logit model 4 , and the random-effects model models 5 and 6, including dummy variables for year effects.
All regressions include no-event polynomials to model time dependence as well as regional and period dummies to control for the respective effects. Robust standard errors clustered by country are reported in parentheses for the standard logistic models. Asterisks denote the levels of statistical significance:.
Throughout all the models, the variable trade dependence is positively associated with the onset of partnerships and, with the exception of the random-effects model, this correlation also yields conventional levels of statistical significance. The data at hand further suggest that it is less year-on-year gains in trade dependence but rather the long-term trajectory of commercial relations that accounts for this finding cf. This may be of particular relevance in relations characterized by marked power asymmetries.
Turning to the role of regime characteristics and ideological affinities, there is evidence linking domestic institutional characteristics with alignment formation. Models 1—5 of Table 2 find a relationship between consolidated democratic institutions in a country and the likelihood of being chosen as a partner by the Chinese government. According to the data, Beijing is generally more inclined to establish cooperative ties with democracies than with authoritarian peers. However, ideological affinities seem to play a role in national preferences with respect to the norms and values directing international society.
As models 1—5 of Table 2 demonstrate, the variable FP similarity IPE is positively correlated with the onset of partnerships, indicating that the Chinese government tends to align more often with states that are equally critical of the established liberal international order. As is the case with trade dependence , this finding is also determined by the overall level of similarity in foreign policy preferences, and not by yearly changes in the run-up to the establishment of partnership relations.
Finally, the main model is re-estimated by splitting the sample into two subsamples according to the OECD membership. The objective is to compare the effects of the explanatory factors on a group of developing countries and on a group of advanced economies. It should be noted that, due to the reduced number of positive outcomes in both groups, one should interpret the results with caution; they should be regarded as tentative rather than authoritative.
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Nevertheless, proceeding this way suggests that the explanatory power of the factors influencing the likelihood of partnership formation differs according to the sampling of countries Table 3. Interestingly, China appears to be more inclined to align with those OECD countries where democratic institutions are not fully consolidated see models 4 and 5 of Table 3.
In the non-OECD world, however, democratic institutions remain positively associated with partnership onset. In addition, national positions within regional power hierarchies seem to be a good predictor of partnership formation among developing countries, suggesting that China seeks to establish closer links with important developing countries and other emerging powers in particular. Finally, it is interesting to note that the overall positive effect of FP similarity IPE is driven by the developing countries in the full sample. Developed Countries.
Note: The table displays the results of the standard logistic regression models 1 to 3 , rare-event logit model 4 , and the random-effects model models 5 and 6, including dummy variables for year effects. All regressions include no-event polynomials to model time dependence, as well as regional and period dummies to control for the respective effects. Several robustness checks support the validity of the overall statistical findings. As shown above, re-estimating the main model using rare-event logit yields qualitatively similar results cf.
The same applies for the random-effects model, which additionally controls for unobserved effects at the country level and includes year dummies see models 5 and 6, Table 2. The step-by-step inclusion of the independent variables into the main model and likelihood ratio tests, as well as a comparison of the reported areas under the ROC curve, indicate that adding the variables improves the overall model-fit in a statistically significant way.
Furthermore, correlation matrices and the variance inflation factor VIF suggest that the reported coefficients are unlikely to be biased due to multicollinearity. Once agreed upon, to what extent do strategic partnerships have an observable effect on the main aspects of bilateral relations? To gain some initial insights into the relevance of partnerships, this section makes an initial exploration into these questions.
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Policy issues are coded based on Voeten , and by the author in the case of human rights issues. The dashed horizontal line shows the global mean of respective measurements for all countries in the dataset. The data show that levels of voting similarity in the UNGA are indeed on average higher with partner countries than with the same countries before the conclusion of partnership agreements Figure 4.
No such pattern can be found in the case of developed countries.
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Moreover, other than security-related resolutions, it becomes evident that levels of alignment increase with the type of partnership from the left to the right, implying that the political aspects seem to play a larger role in the case of comprehensive strategic partnerships than in basic partnerships, as assumed throughout the article.
In other sectors of global governance, however, the political payoffs are less obvious. Data sources are provided in the data section of this article. The dashed horizontal line shows the global mean of the respective measurement for all countries in the dataset. To sum up, partnerships seemingly facilitate the achievement of at least some of the objectives attributed to them, such as the coordination of foreign policies in international affairs and the promotion of bilateral economic exchanges. It must be emphasized that the ability of partner countries to reach concurrent foreign policy positions seems to be confined to the basic foundations of global order as expressed in the overall voting alignment in the UNGA, as well as levels of agreement on human rights and sovereignty issues.
The influence of partnerships on reaching similar positions on questions related to international security e. It has argued that strategic partnerships do not follow a threat-based alignment rationale but result instead from economic and strategic interests, as well as ideological affinities. In a nutshell, the statistical analysis shows that in the case of China, partnerships are best described as interest-driven alignments. However, connecting with countries that are more important regionally might also provide gateways to other actors in a region, again to further diplomatic and economic interests.
The latter observation, however, seems to apply mainly to developing regions. China seeks closer ties in particular with important developing countries in order to facilitate future collaboration in specific areas wherein the governments of these countries share Chinese views on the basic norms and visions of the global order.